The next Australian Federal Election looks like it could be one of the tightest ever.
With the Senate on a knife-edge and incumbent Prime Minister wobbling in the polls, there’s no telling who the next PM will be.
If you’re up for a bet on the next Australian Federal Election, let’s see how the odds are looking with Bet365.
Last Time Round
The 2016 election victory for Malcolm Turnbull and his centre-right coalition was the tightest margin of victory since 1961.
Even after the vote there was wrangling on both sides as Turnbull and Bill Shorten scrambled to form “crossbench” alliances.
It was a full eight days before Shorten conceded, which shows you how finely poised the political in Australia is at the moment. The smallest swing either way could be pivotal.
Who Is Favourite to Win the Australian Federal Election?
The clear favourite as of now is the Labor Party (3/5) led by Shorten, and this might have more to do with the troubles suffered by the centre-right coalition.
The Coalition (5/4) has seen its base whittled away by the emergence of far-right firebrand Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
Malcolm Turnbull has seen his approval slump even more through in-fighting in with former PM Tony Abbott, as well as controversies over energy prices and petrol supplies.
If Australia were to go to the polls today, Labor would run out with 82 seats to the Coalition’s 63, giving them a decisive majority.
Betting on the Year of the Next Australian Federal Election
The reason the date of the next election is open to speculation is because constitutionally it must take place between August 2018 and May 2019.
There has to be a federal election at least every three years and the last one happened in July 2016. This is because senators serve six-year terms, with half the house’s terms expiring every three years.
At this point 2018 looks like a marginally more likely date (9/10), while Bet365 will give you odds of 1/1 for 2019.
The only exception is in the case of a double dissolution.
This happens when there’s a government deadlock, and the prime minister advises the governor general to dissolve both houses of the Australian Parliament and announce an election.
Another Double Dissolution wouldn’t be impossible as it just happened in 2016, while the time before that was 1987.
The odds of it occurring in 2017 are long, at 14/1, and are getting longer as we pass the halfway point in the year.
Betting on the Australian Federal Election
With an election at least a year away it’s anyone’s guess how this one will pan out.
One hot topic in Australia is immigration, and Turnbull’s approval has recovered a little in June on the back of tough new proposals for foreign skilled workers.
If you’re watching the odds for the Australian election, keep an eye on how this debate unfolds.
All markets are with Bet365, and will be open until 2nd November 2017 at 03:00.