In a bid to get more votes for the Conservative Party in the UK 2015 General Election, current Prime Minister David Cameron promised the British public a referendum on whether to stay in the European Union or not.
The UK has enjoyed a union with Europe for many years, both politically and economically. However, part of the UK population is fighting to leave the European Union altogether.
With parties such as UKIP seemingly in favour of the UK being brought out of Europe, many people won’t vote for this party based on the other beliefs which are put forward by Nigel Farage, leader of the party.
If the Conservative Party wins the election, it’s very likely that there will be a referendum of some sorts given to the British public in order to let them decide what the country will do.
What’s the Most Likely Outcome?
The fascinating thing about the views of the British public on whether the UK should remain a part of the European Union is that they are completely divided.
A huge poll of 20,000 people showed that 41% were in favour of staying in the EU, while 41% wanted to come out. The remaining 18% had not yet decided at the time of the poll.
Because of the polls which have been conducted over the past few years, it makes it very difficult for anybody to make a guess as to which way it could go when the UK does finally get a referendum.
Will There Definitely Be a Referendum?
Unless the Conservatives win the next election with majority votes, there is unlikely to be an EU referendum in the near future, especially since political parties Labour and the Liberal Democrats aren’t in favour of having a guaranteed referendum.
Betting on the EU Membership Referendum
PaddyPower is one of the bookmakers which is taking bets on this issue, so if you fancy trying your luck and placing a bet, you can bet on either the UK coming out of the EU or staying in. The bets will only count if there is a referendum and decision made by the end of May 2020.
Both possibilities have the same odds of 5/6, so clearly PaddyPower has no idea which way the potential votes could go.
William Hill has very different odds and rules to PaddyPower. In order for bets made with William Hill on this matter to count, the referendum must have taken place by the beginning of the year 2019, almost 18 months earlier than PaddyPower states.
The odds for remaining in the EU are 4/6, while the odds to leave the European Union are 11/10.
Another bookmaker which is taking bets for whether the UK will get an EU membership referendum result is Boyle Sports. This company believes the UK is more likely to stay in the European Union, and has given this result odds of 8/11.
When Will We Know the Result?
The only way there will be a result is if there is a referendum in the first place, which is only guaranteed to take place by 2017 if the Conservatives get in power this year.