In a year of big elections around Europe, maybe the biggest of them all is coming up at the end of September.
So who do you reckon will be chancellor after the German Federal Election? We’ll run through the candidates and look at the story behind the odds so you can make an informed bet.
Angela Merkel (Evens)
In a world of extremes, there’s something reassuring about having a strong centrist leader in one of the world’s biggest economies.
The electorate know that what you get with Merkel is stability and dependability. And given the turmoil we’ve seen following Brexit and Trump’s election, the German public is being backed to stick with the tried and tested.
Reason for Doubt
But if you’re hesitating to bet on Merkel to be the next German Chancellor, there is a reason for concern.
After the attack in Berlin in December, Merkel’s approval ratings took a huge hit.
When Germany stepped up during the refugee crisis in 2015 it was clear that the country would need time to adjust. And we’re still finding out just how much this will hurt Merkel.
Martin Schulz (5/4)
There’s also a big challenge from the left. Because at the moment the SPD led by former President of the European Parliament is polling high.
Right now the SPD and Merkel’s CDU/CSU are in a centrist coalition. But there’s talk that Germany’s left-wing parties would set aside their historic differences and form their own coalition if they get enough votes.
SPD wouldn’t even need a majority, as they could form a minority coalition if Die Linke, the Greens and the FDP each get more than five percent of the vote.
And the man to lead such a government would be Martin Schulz.
Wolfgang Schäuble (14/1)
With a reputation for fiscal responsibility, the current finance minister Schäuble is one of the most respected men in German politics.
But if you’re thinking of betting on the next German chancellor, consider his age at 74, which adds an element of doubt.
It would have to take an emergency to make Schäuble chancellor, though it’s a job he was vying for with Merkel a decade ago.
Frauke Petry (14/1)
If this one were to come about it would rock the world to its core. Frauke Petry is the leader of the far-right AfD.
It might be worth a bet if you feel the events of the last 18 months have caused a gigantic shift in German opinion.
The polls say otherwise, but they’ve been wrong before.
Who Will be the Next German Chancellor?
In leadership as in gambling, if you’re playing it safe, go with Merkel to be the next German Chancellor. But you can’t rule out Schulz either.
If you’re tempted to have a flutter the market will be open with Paddy Power until Friday, 1st September.