Bet on Which Countries Will Leave the EU by 2025

Which country will follow Britain out of the EU?

Some states have proposed Brexit-style referendums, while others may clash over bailout terms.

Then you have France and the Netherlands, where big election candidates are running on anti-EU platforms.

Let’s find out the odds for which country is most likely to leave the EU by 2025.

country odds of leaving the eu

Italy – Evens

In December Italian voters rejected government reforms in a referendum that forced Europhile prime minister Matteo Renzi to resign.

There was talk that this would give the anti-EU Five Star movement the chance to take power.

But EU-supporter, Paolo Gentiloni formed a centre right coalition and won confidence votes from the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate of the Republic, keeping Five Star out.

But looming in the background is the matter of Italy’s banking and government debt. Most commentators agree that bailouts of some form will be needed, which could quickly bring Italy’s EU status into question.

Czech Republic – 2/1

After the Brexit results came through, one of the countries seen as most likely to follow Britain out the door was the Czech Republic.

The anti-EU sentiment in this country hinges mostly on immigration, especially the idea of compulsory migrant quotas.

These short odds come from polls showing the majority of Czechs opposed to the EU. In the wake of the Brexit vote, pro-European president called for an EU referendum, but the proposal was rejected by the Czech government.

France – 10/3

May’s election is the hardest to call in decades. Far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen has been a long-term critic of the union, praised Brexit and has vowed to take France out of the EU if she wins.

But France’s odds for leaving the EU have lengthened because even though Le Pen has never had more support, most analysts see her falling short in the elections.

In a three-horse race, the centre-right candidate François Fillon has been scuppered by a corruption scandal.

But that is actually bad news for Le Pen, as the social liberal Emmanuel Macron is tipped to beat her easily should they go head-to-head in the second round of voting.

Best of the Rest

Two other countries in the top six have prominent right-wing anti-EU figures. In Austria (11/2) that’s Norbert Hofer, who was just defeated in the presidential elections.

In the Netherlands (7/2) it’s Geert Wilders who poses a more immediate threat as his far-right PVV is polling strongly ahead of the General Election in March 2017.

And then there’s Greece (4/1), lurching from one crisis to the next as it struggles to meet bailout conditions.

Who’s Your Bet to be the Next to Leave the EU?

Remember, the country you bet on has to have formally left the EU by the end of 2025.

The markets are open at Paddy Power until March 31st 2017.

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