A second Indyref is going to happen sooner or later. But the question is, when exactly?
At the moment the whole matter is up in the air, as Nicola Sturgeon has yet to open formal negotiations with the UK Government.
If you fancy putting some money on it, we’ll investigate the background and give some reasons behind Paddy Power’s odds.
Here We Go Again!
The SNP’s new push for independence began on 13 March, when SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon announced she would try to get the nod from Scottish Parliament to negotiate with the UK Government for a Section 30 order.
This would enable a second indy referendum, following on from the poll in September 2014, which “No” won with 55% of the vote.
When Will the Next Scottish Referendum Take Place?
That’s actually the tricky part.
First, remember that Paddy Power says that this has to be a binding vote. That’s an important detail, because legally, if the UK Government doesn’t give Scotland permission to hold a referendum it won’t be valid.
And so far all Theresa May has said is:
My message is very clear – now is not the time. We should be working to get the right deal for Scotland and the UK.
Which isn’t a “no”. More that the priority is on leaving the EU. And if May sticks to that course, the vote won’t happen until after 2020.
As it goes, “2020 or later” is Paddy Power’s favourite outcome, and they’re pricing it at evens.
But What about the Scottish Side?
Sturgeon wants it much sooner than that: Preferably long before Brexit is signed off.
The early reports were that Sturgeon would push for the second half of 2018 (9/1) or the first quarter of 2019 (8/1).
But then this could be an opening gambit to kick off negotiations before settling for a later date.
Paddy Power will give you odds of 8/1 for the second quarter of 2019, 9/1 for the third quarter and 10/1 for the fourth.
Another thing that will decide what will be the date of the next Scottish referendum is the result of the debate on Indyref in Scottish parliament.
Even though this is a formality it was interrupted and delayed by the terrorist incident in London.
Sturgeon has refused to comment on what her next move will be if her proposal for a Section 30 order is ignored or turned down.
We’ll know a lot more in the coming weeks so you’ll need to move fast.
When Will the Second Scottish Independence Referendum Happen?
If you think things will move faster Paddy Power will give you long odds of 33/1 for 2017, 25/1 for the first quarter of 2018 and 16/1 for the second quarter.
The market will be open until May 31st 2017, by which time the date may be set in stone.