If you’re thinking of betting on the 2017 German Federal Election, we’re here to update you on the background to the vote this autumn.
We’ll count down the favourites and see if it’s worth gambling on an upset in the Bundestag vote.
Even after the landmark events that have shaken the world recently, German politics remains pretty stable.
Merkel’s popularity may have taken a hit, but her CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU are clear favourites to win the most seats in 2017.
Their grip on power is strengthened by a Grand Coalition with the rival SPD, making up 80% of the Bundestag seats after the 2013 election.
There would have to be a cataclysmic swing to avoid a similar outcome at this year’s election.
Except recently the centre-left SPD has been making big gains in the polls lately. This is important, and after being out of power since 2000, they might have a chance of leading a Red-Green coalition, excluding the CDU/CSU.
For this to be possible, other progressive parties like the FDP and the Greens would need to get at least 5% of the vote each, which also looks likely given the current polls.
So it’s a scenario that might inspire people who want change to vote for the reds in September.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) (6/1)
Doubt creeps in when you try to work out how much of a foothold far-right thinking has gained in the last four years. Because some big events might buy this anti-EU, islamophobic party a dramatic share of the vote.
It began with the controversial decision by Merkel to accept 600,000 refugees from the war in Syria in 2015. While most people would praise this act of humanitarianism, German society is still coming to terms with its consequences.
To try to gauge the impact on the national psyche, it’s worth remembering that there had been five terrorist incidents in Germany between 1992 and 2011, compared to five in the last 18 months alone.
Rise of Populism
It might also pay to note what’s happened in USA with the election of Trump, UK after the Brexit vote, and the upcoming elections in France and the Netherlands, where far-right parties are polling high.
In the recent regional vote in the former East German State of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the AfD came second, knocking Merkel’s CDU down to third.
But it’s also a given that AfD should do well in a more deprived part of the country than, say, Bavaria or Baden-Württemberg in the south.
And besides all this, no other parties want to work with them, and their low chances of forming a coalition and actually governing might put many potential voters off the AfD.
Who Will Win the Most Seats in the 2017 German Election?
So those are the frontrunners. But if you like a long-shot you could go for the Greens, Left or FDP (100/1).
You can bet on the 2017 German Federal Election up to 27 August 2017 with Paddy Power.