Do you fancy putting money on Mexico building Trump’s wall? Paddy Power is taking bets on just this question.
So let’s see how likely it is that Mexico will fork out for for a border wall.
Does Trump Even Want to Build a Wall?
Before we get to the question of whether Mexico will pay for Trump’s wall, we need to know if it’s something Trump even wants to do.
If you buy the idea that Trump’s campaign was about pitching crazy policies just to see which ones gained traction with his base, you might wonder whether he actually wants to go through with a wall.
He might be aware that the wall might be unfeasible and ineffective. But as it was such a marquee policy in his campaign he might “try” to push the legislation through and then redirect the anger of his voters onto the Democrats or Congress or the judiciary when it gets rejected.
This seems to have happened with his Muslim travel ban, so we can’t rule it out.
Would a Wall be a Good Idea?
Bear in mind that Mexico and the US have a free trade agreement, and that Mexico is the US’s third-largest trading partner.
The diplomatic and financial tangle that such a belligerent project would cause would surely make Trump think twice.
So far Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and one of his predecessors Vicente Fox have slammed the idea in blunt terms.
And then you ask whether it would stem the flow of drugs and “bad hombres” into the country and the answer would be, “probably not”.
The Task at Hand
Fancy betting that Mexico will pay for Trump’s Wall?
Let’s also look at some facts and figures involved. This thing would be 1,900 miles in length, and would cross some of the remotest, most inhospitable terrain on the North American continent.
Sensible cost estimates climb to more than $20 billion, and then you factor in the cost of policing such a structure in places where a cool day in summer is 40°C.
How Could It Be Done?
If you want to bet on whether Mexico will announce will pay for Trump’s wall you need to figure out what might force the Mexican government into this position.
Soft blackmail from the US might work; they could draw up a financial package that would force Mexico’s hand
That might involve raising fees on temporary visas issued to CEOs and diplomats, increasing fees on border crossing cards and Free Trade Agreement visas, raising trade tariffs and slashing foreign aid.
Such punitive measures might force Mexico into submission. But it might also cause widespread domestic unrest and international uproar that could hurt America’s world standing.
What Are the Odds Mexico Will Build Trump’s Wall?
At the moment they’re a long 25/1. The condition is that Mexico has to release a clear statement claiming that they will pay for the wall.
This market will be open until Sunday 31st December 2017.