Donald Trump’s first few days in office have been mired in controversy. There have been huge protests from ordinary people on the streets of cities around the USA, and he took office with the lowest approval rating of any incoming President in history.
But what are the odds that Trump is going to be impeached in the next four years?
What Does It Take to Impeach a President?
The kind of convictions that can remove a president from office are “treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanours.”
This early on in Trump’s first term, and with no time to do anything wrong, you might speculate if something murky from his past will come up.
When people have made accusations against Trump in the past, their lawsuits have been impeded by any number of legal roadblocks that would be costly and time-consuming to overcome.
This goes for complaints of sexual assault filed last year and all manner of legal affairs relating to deleting emails and shredding documents under subpoena.
So the first doubt about whether Trump will be impeached in the next four years is that a case might not even get through the system before then. And that’s assuming there is enough historical dirt on him in the first place.
Political Barriers to Impeaching Donald Trump
The other reason it’s unlikely that Trump will be impeached in his first term as president is that the House of Representatives is the one that wields the power of impeachment. At the moment this house has a significant Republican majority of 240 to 194.
And it gets even more difficult when you see that there’s a Republican majority in the United States Senate, which has the sole power to try impeachments approved by the House of Representatives. Right now there are 52 Republicans to 46 Democrats.
And at a time when America seems totally divided along bipartisan lines, it’s unlikely that there would be enough political traction to make Trump answer for any purported misdemeanors.
One theory touted by the former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich, might make the chances of Trump getting impeached seem more likely. He has suggested that the Republicans have exploited Trump’s popularity in order to seize power but don’t trust his temperament.
There are skeletons in his closet, whether relating to his personal life or relationship with Putin, that could send Trump under. They’ll use him for as long as they can, knowing he’s on borrowed time, and then throw him to the wolves at a PR-friendly moment.
Well, so the story goes. And now we’re in the realm of complete speculation.
So Should You Bet on Trump Being Impeached in His First Term?
As it stands Paddy Power has Trump priced at 11/4 to get impeached in the next four years. If you fancy placing a bet this market is currently open until 20 June 2017.